Ensemble modelling, uncertainty and robust predictions of organic carbon in long-term bare-fallow soils.

Simulation models represent soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in global carbon (C) cycle scenarios to support climate-change studies. It is imperative to increase confidence in long-term predictions of SOC dynamics by reducing the uncertainty in model estimates. We evaluated SOC simulated from an ensemble of 26 process-based C models by comparing simulations to experimental data from seven long-term bare-fallow (vegetation-free) plots at six sites: Denmark (two sites), France, Russia, Sweden and the United Kingdom. The decay of SOC in these plots has been monitored for decades since the last inputs of plant material, providing the opportunity to test decomposition without the continuous input of new organic material. The models were run independently over multi-year simulation periods (from 28 to 80 years) in a blind test with no calibration (Bln) and with the following three calibration scenarios, each providing different levels of information and/or allowing different levels of model fitting: (a) calibrating decomposition parameters separately at each experimental site (Spe); (b) using a generic, knowledge-based, parameterization applicable in the Central European region (Gen); and (c) using a combination of both (a) and (b) strategies (Mix). We addressed uncertainties from different modelling approaches with or without spin-up initialization of SOC. Changes in the multi-model median (MMM) of SOC were used as descriptors of the ensemble performance. On average across sites, Gen proved adequate in describing changes in SOC, with MMM equal to average SOC (and standard deviation) of 39.2 (±15.5) Mg C/ha compared to the observed mean of 36.0 (±19.7) Mg C/ha (last observed year), indicating sufficiently reliable SOC estimates. Moving to Mix (37.5 ± 16.7 Mg C/ha) and Spe (36.8 ± 19.8 Mg C/ha) provided only marginal gains in accuracy, but modellers would need to apply more knowledge and a greater calibration effort than in Gen, thereby limiting the wider applicability of models.

Interactions between a population of fallow deer (Dama dama), humans and crops in a managed composite temperate landscape in southern Sweden: Conflict or opportunity?

Landscapes composed of agricultural land mixed with forest are desirable since they provide a wide range of diversified ecosystem services, unlike specialized agricultural landscapes, but that creates a trade-off between these land uses since wildlife usually feed on crops and reduce yields. In Nordic countries, where human population density is low and game hunting can be a viable economic alternative, mixed landscape systems are particularly interesting. To evaluate the economic sustainability of such systems we need to quantify wildlife damage to crops. One important species, being popular among Swedish hunters and therefore economically valuable, is fallow deer (Dama dama). Our objective was to evaluate the economic sustainability of mixed landscape systems including cultivated fields and commercial hunting of fallow deer. We studied the effects of excluding fallow deer by using 86 exclosures and adjacent plots in winter wheat and oat fields in south-west Sweden. We analyzed yield losses and interactions between spatial and temporal grazing patterns, anthropogenic landscape features, and topological characteristics of the landscape. We found that animals avoided exposed spots, irrespective of distance from human activity. We also found a seasonal grazing pattern related to the different growing periods of winter wheat (more grazed, emerging in autumn) and spring oat (less grazed, emerging in spring). We then compared the costs of crop damage against the commercial value of fallow deer hunting. The damage amounted to 375 ±196 € ha-1 for wheat and 152 ±138 € ha-1 for oat, corresponding to a total cost per animal of 82.7 ±81.0 €, while each animal had an estimated market value of approximately 100 €. Therefore the value of fallow deer presence compensated for the associated cost of crop damage. Profit could be further improved in this case by adopting additional management strategies. In general our study confirmed the economic feasibility of this particular mixed land management.

Impact of long-term N fertilisation on CO2 evolution from old and young SOM pools measured during the maize cropping season.

The relationship between carbon (C) inputs and nitrogen (N) fertilisation is a key element of soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics, which remains poorly resolved. In temperate climates, it is critical to investigate the interactive effect of C and N inputs on SOM stabilisation under low or high substrate availability. We measured SOM content and in situ soil respiration in a long-term field experiment in Sweden, which started in 1956. In 2000, the previous C3 crops were replaced with C4 maize, making it possible to trace old- (C3-derived) and young-C (C4-derived) sources in CO2 and SOM under bare fallow, maize cropped with or without N-fertilisation (root C-inputs). Soil respiration and its isotopic composition were measured in the field prior to sowing, every second week during crop growth and once after harvest. During 1956-1999, the bare fallow lost 38% of its SOM, following an exponential decay trend. Despite root C inputs, total SOM content under C3 crops declined from 1.5% in 1956 to 1.4% and 1.2% C in fertilised and unfertilised treatments, respectively, in 1999. After the crop change in 2000, estimated C input increased by 5% (under fertilisation), but SOM content continued to decline (as before 2000), to 1.25% (fertilised) and 1.03% (unfertilised) in 2017. Analysis of δ13C revealed that 9 and 11% of young-C was retained in unfertilised and fertilised SOM, respectively. However, up to 70% of soil respiration derived from young-C. Comparing the contributions of old- and young-C to CO2 and SOM showed that, irrespective to the time of measurement, young-C was always more available for microbial decomposition than old-C, particularly under fertilisation. We conclude that the amount of C entering the soil through root inputs was insufficient to counterbalance SOM losses over time. Moreover, soil nutrient status and recent root-C availability appear to be important for CO2 release, and must be considered in further recommendations on maintaining/improving SOM stocks.

Generic parameters of first-order kinetics accurately describe soil organic matter decay in bare fallow soils over a wide edaphic and climatic range.

The conventional soil organic matter (SOM) decay paradigm considers the intrinsic quality of SOM as the dominant decay limitation with the result that it is modelled using simple first-order decay kinetics. This view and modelling approach is often criticized for being too simplistic and unreliable for predictive purposes. It is still under debate if first-order models can correctly capture the variability in temporal SOM decay observed between different agroecosystems and climates. To address this question, we calibrated a first-order model (Q) on six long-term bare fallow field experiments across Europe. Following conventional SOM decay theory, we assumed that parameters directly describing SOC decay (rate of SOM quality change and decomposer metabolism) are thermodynamically constrained and therefore valid for all sites. Initial litter input quality and edaphic interactions (both local by definition) and microbial efficiency (possibly affected by nutrient stoichiometry) were instead considered site-specific. Initial litter input quality explained most observed kinetics variability, and the model predicted a convergence toward a common kinetics over time. Site-specific variables played no detectable role. The decay of decades-old SOM seemed mostly influenced by OM chemistry and was well described by first order kinetics and a single set of general kinetics parameters.

Production and turnover of ectomycorrhizal extramatrical mycelial biomass and necromass under elevated CO2 and nitrogen fertilization.

Extramatrical mycelia (EMM) of ectomycorrhizal fungi are important in carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling in forests, but poor knowledge about EMM biomass and necromass turnovers makes the quantification of their role problematic. We studied the impacts of elevated CO2 and N fertilization on EMM production and turnover in a Pinus taeda forest. EMM C was determined by the analysis of ergosterol (biomass), chitin (total bio- and necromass) and total organic C (TOC) of sand-filled mycelium in-growth bags. The production and turnover of EMM bio- and necromass and total C were estimated by modelling. N fertilization reduced the standing EMM biomass C to 57% and its production to 51% of the control (from 238 to 122 kg C ha(-1)  yr(-1) ), whereas elevated CO2 had no detectable effects. Biomass turnover was high (˜13 yr(-1) ) and unchanged by the treatments. Necromass turnover was slow and was reduced from 1.5 yr(-1) in the control to 0.65 yr(-1) in the N-fertilized treatment. However, TOC data did not support an N effect on necromass turnover. An estimated EMM production ranging from 2.5 to 6% of net primary production stresses the importance of its inclusion in C models. A slow EMM necromass turnover indicates an importance in building up forest humus.

Increase in soil stable carbon isotope ratio relates to loss of organic carbon: results from five long-term bare fallow experiments.

Changes in the (12)C/(13)C ratio (expressed as δ(13)C) of soil organic C (SOC) has been observed over long time scales and with depth in soil profiles. The changes are ascribed to the different reaction kinetics of (12)C and (13)C isotopes and the different isotopic composition of various SOC pool components. However, experimental verification of the subtle isotopic shifts associated with SOC turnover under field conditions is scarce. We determined δ(13)C and SOC in soil sampled during 1929-2009 in the Ap-horizon of five European long-term bare fallow experiments kept without C inputs for 27-80 years and covering a latitudinal range of 11°. The bare fallow soils lost 33-65% of their initial SOC content and showed a mean annual δ(13)C increase of 0.008-0.024‰. The (13)C enrichment could be related empirically to SOC losses by a Rayleigh distillation equation. A more complex mechanistic relationship was also examined. The overall estimate of the fractionation coefficient (ε) was -1.2 ± 0.3‰. This coefficient represents an important input to studies of long-term SOC dynamics in agricultural soils that are based on variations in (13)C natural abundance. The variance of ε may be ascribed to site characteristics not disclosed in our study, but the very similar kinetics measured across our five experimental sites suggest that overall site-specific factors (including climate) had a marginal influence and that it may be possible to isolate a general mechanism causing the enrichment, although pre-fallow land use may have some impact on isotope abundance and fractionation.